Work

Elicited Choice Probability to Account for Uncertain Responses to Hypothetical Travel Survey Questions

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: In contrast to the typical discrete choice survey response format, this paper examines Elicited Choice Probability (ECP) data, in which respondents explicitly report uncertain behaviour in hypothetical scenarios. Using survey data from e-bike incentive programs in British Columbia, Canada, we find that most respondents reported more than one possible choice, although they had a strong leading alternative with nearly 80% average likelihood. The ECP data add nuance, but yield similar aggregate choice probabilities (<5%pt difference). A single-choice response format may be preferred to reduce response burden, but analysts should consider the bias it creates toward more-certain alternatives.

Source: Findings

DOI: 10.32866/001c.165425

Authors: Alexander Bigazzi, Amir Hassanpour

Institution: University of British Columbia

Language: English

Topic: Economic and Environmental Valuation

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $100

Funder: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada