Burden of cardiovascular diseases in the Asia–Pacific region from 1990 to 2023, with forecasts to 2050: a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of disease study 2023
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally, with the Asia-Pacific region home to over two-thirds of the world's population, bearing over half of this burden. This study aims to characterise historical trends and forecast CVD burden in the Asia-Pacific from 1990 to 2050, identifying disparities by geographic subregions, sociodemographic index (SDI), and age-sex strata. Methods: Historical (1990-2023) and forecasted (2025-2050) trends in CVD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality across 39 Asia-Pacific countries were examined using Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. Findings: In the Asia-Pacific, CVD accounted for 241.2 million DALYs (55.3% of global) in 2023. Crude DALYs rose by 51.3% from 1990 to 2023, despite 36.2% reduction in age-standardised DALYs. Crude DALYs will rise further by 10.7% from 2025 to 2050. Atherosclerotic CVD is the key driver of morbidity, with stroke (1255.0 DALYs per 100,000 population) projected to plausibly surpass ischaemic heart disease (1148.7 DALYs per 100,000 population) by 2050. Disparities in CVD burden exist across SDI (low and low-middle SDI bearing the highest burden), geography (Oceania bearing the highest burden), and age-sex categories (DALYs peaking earlier in males by at least 5 years). Interpretation: The net effect of gains in CVD prevention is offset by the rising crude CVD burden owing to the growing and ageing population. The heterogeneity in CVD burden across countries of different socioeconomic development poses unique challenges in tackling CVD in the Asia-Pacific. Funding: SingHealth Duke-National University of Singapore Cardiovascular Sciences Academic Clinical Programme, the National Medical Research Council of Singapore, and the Stafford Fox Foundation.
Authors: Nicholas W.S. Chew, Srinithy Nagarajan, F Aaysha Cader, Yiming Chen, Bryan Chong, Clara K. Chow, Corina Grey, Yuming Guo, Haryo Raden Himan, Jayanth Jayabaskaran, Thushara Matthias, Adam J. Nelson, Marie Ng, Georgia Rejack, Anna Rolleston, Gregory Roth, Ambuj Roy, Navaneetha Sasikumar, Mitsuaki Sawano, Kathryn Choon Beng Tan, Jasper Tromp, Lijing L. Yan, Khung Keong Yeo, Stephen J. Nicholls, Carolyn S.P. Lam, Nicholas W.S. Chew, Srinithy Nagarajan, F Aaysha Cader, Yiming Chen, Bryan Chong, Clara K. Chow, Corina Grey, Yuming Guo, Haryo Raden Himan, Jayanth Jayabaskaran, Thushara Matthias, Adam J. Nelson, Marie Ng, Georgia Rejack, Anna Rolleston, Gregory Roth, Ambuj Roy, Navaneetha Sasikumar, Mitsuaki Sawano, Kathryn Choon Beng Tan, Jasper Tromp, Lijing L. Yan, Khung Keong Yeo, Stephen J. Nicholls, Carolyn S.P. Lam, Alan Fong, Amina Rakisheva, Chanchal Chandramouli, Grace Wangge, Gwyneth Kong, Junya Ako, Kyung Woo Park, Nusrat Majeed, Praveen Devarsetty, Quang Ngoc Nguyen, Tanayarat Aramsareewong, Maoyi Tian, Yuan Lu
Institutions: National University of Singapore, National University Heart Centre Singapore, National University Health System, National University Hospital, Kettering General Hospital, Ibrahim Cardiac Hospital & Research Institute, The University of Sydney, University of Auckland, Monash University, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Royal Adelaide Hospital, The University of Adelaide, The Centre for Health (New Zealand), University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences and Research Centre, University of Alberta, Teikyo University, University of Hong Kong, Duke Kunshan University, Duke-NUS Medical School, National Heart Centre Singapore, Baim Institute for Clinical Research
Language: English
Subfield: Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $4,250
OpenAlex ID: W7203870677