Long-Term Spatiotemporal Distribution of Great Earthquakes and Its Physical Drivers: An Analysis Based on Thermal-Mechanical Coupling and Scale Invariance
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Approximately 90% of global shallow great earthquakes (M≥7) are concentrated along the Circum-Pacific subduction zones and continental collision belts, while ancient cratons exhibit remarkably sparse strong earthquake records. This study proposes a thermal-mechanical coupling framework, based on the spatial correlation between radioactive element distribution, terrestrial heat flow, and seismic activity, to explain the pronounced heterogeneity in the global distribution of great earthquakes. We find a significant negative correlation between crustal heat flow and the density of M≥7 earthquakes (Pearson r = -0.68, p < 0.01). Radioactive decay serves as the primary energy source for mantle convection, driving plate motion. However, the source regions of great earthquakes are concentrated in low-radioactivity, low-heat-flow "cold and brittle" crust. This duality is characterized as "thermally driven, cold-fractured." We introduce the Renormalization Group (RG) method to derive, from scale invariance principles, a quantitative relationship between the maximum potential earthquake magnitude and terrestrial heat flow: Global observations from 42 subduction zones, selected based on data quality and uniform spatial definition, show excellent agreement with the theoretical prediction (R2 = 0.89), with a 95% confidence interval of approximately ± 0.3 magnitude units. The framework is complemented by Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) theory to explain the origin of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) power-law distribution. This study emphasizes long-term probability distributions (decadal to centurial scales) and is not applicable to short-term prediction. At the end of the paper, we tentatively propose the Information Coherent Resonance (ICR) concept as a potential unifying language for remote triggering; however, this concept has not yet been empirically validated, and its complete verification is deferred to future research.
Authors: Fenglei Kang, fenglei kang
Subfield: Geophysics
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W7203878205
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