MODEL ADOPTION #1191: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.6% — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: The "Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION" filter is not a concrete, testable edge compatible with E8 geometry timing. It is a calendar-based heuristic that does not derive from E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic, FADE polarity, or any measurable market microstructure. The backtest (n=120) is too small to rule out overfitting, and the +12.6pp win-rate improvement is not validated across multiple regime shifts. The filter would reject trades during distribution/markdown phases that may align with E8 timing entries, creating a systematic bias against valid trend-following signals. EXPECTED IMPACT: No adoption — no impact. RISK: If adopted, the filter would introduce a calendar-dependent rule that conflicts with E8's intrinsic timing, likely degrading performance in trending markets and increasing missed-opportunity cost. The 72% confidence is insufficient given the small sample and lack of geometric justification. TEST: Not applicable — the rule fails the first princ Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7203906127
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