Work

Impact of Single-Use Plastic Regulation on Ecuadorian Imports: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Customs Records, 2014–2025

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Single-use plastic pollution is a critical global challenge, prompting nations to enact trade-restrictive environmental policies. This study evaluated the impact of Ecuador’s single-use plastic regulation on the imports of regulated plastic products. Analyzing five tariff headings from 2014 to 2025, we integrated official customs records with Interrupted Time Series (ITS) models to estimate regulatory effects. The results revealed sharply divergent trajectories across product categories: imports of plastic waste (HS 3915) declined from US dollars (USD) 4193 in 2020 to zero by 2024, while the remaining four regulated headings, plastic bags, packaging, tableware, and household articles, expanded continuously, with import volumes increasing between 48% and 74% in the post-regulatory period. ITS models confirmed statistically significant trend changes in headings 3915.00, 3923.29, and partially 3924.10, whereas headings 3923.21 and 3924.90 showed no statistically detectable response. Regulatory effects manifested primarily through gradual trend modifications rather than abrupt post-enactment contractions, and supplier structure analysis documented a systematic reorganization of international sourcing patterns, indicating that the trade response extended well beyond simple import reduction.

Source: Sustainability

DOI: 10.3390/su18178682

Authors: Carlos David Lizano-Arauz, Reyner Pérez-Campdesuñer, Pablo Emilio Basantes-Garcés, Rodobaldo Martínez-Vivar, Gelmar García-Vidal

Institution: Universidad UTE

Language: English

Topic: Microplastics and Plastic Pollution

Subfield: Pollution

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Responsible consumption and production

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,896