Work

The affective politics of transitions: insights from public opinion and party dynamics

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Amid growing political polarisation and populist backlash against climate policies, sustainability transitions research is increasingly focusing on how such political dynamics influence transition processes. However, transition studies have tended to treat questions about political feasibility and public opinion formation with a certain empirical and conceptual distance. Seeking to bridge transitions research with insights gained through political science and public opinion, this paper zooms in on how public opinion formation and partisan dynamics, particularly the dislike of political parties, are associated with public responses to climate policy proposals. Drawing on survey data from the Norwegian Citizen Panel (N = 9997), we find that dislike of specific political parties is a significant, and often stronger, predictor of climate policy support or opposition than party identification or sociodemographic factors. Party dislike has the greatest effect on responses to salient and contested issues, such as wind power expansion. These reactions are particularly pronounced toward smaller challenger and populist parties associated with specific positions on climate-related matters. These dynamics show strong associations between affective responses to political parties and policy attitudes and point at a fragmentation in public opinion, not necessarily over the need for climate action, but over the political associations of specific climate measures. We highlight that understanding these affective and identity-related dynamics of public opinion is essential for assessing the political feasibility of ambitious climate policies and for advancing sustainability transition research, especially in light of the increasingly contentious character of climate policy.

Source: Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions

DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2026.101180

Authors: Elena Baro, Gisle Solbu, Tomas Moe Skjølsvold

Institution: Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change Communication and Perception

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,610