Work

High-resolution machine learning processed satellite data reveal accelerated reef collapse

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Coral reef area loss is accelerating globally, yet quantifying the mechanisms driving this loss remains challenging where monitoring is sparse. The Arabian Sea coast hosts distinctive coral communities exposed to extreme environmental gradients, including globally unique Montipora -dominated assemblages at Bar Al Hikman, Oman. Recent work documented substantial reef area loss over five decades, but temporal resolution precluded determining whether reefs lose area continuously under chronic stress or episodically following acute disturbances. Here we show, through analysis of 223 satellite images (average 5.8 observations per year) spanning 1985–2025 processed via machine learning, that reef area loss follows a sustained trajectory rather than episodic disturbance. Thermal stress metrics are strongly associated with area loss, and reef margin retreat aligns with persistent monsoon-driven wave directions rather than cyclone tracks. These findings suggest that reef area loss operates through a coupled thermal–mechanical process in which recurrent episodic thermal stress events cause coral mortality and framework weakening, and the resulting dead skeletal material is progressively removed by persistent monsoon-driven wave action, producing a continuous area loss trajectory rather than the episodic storm-driven loss previously assumed. Area loss averaged 0.10 km $$^{2}$$ yr $$^{-1}$$ before 2006, accelerating to 0.15 km $$^{2}$$ yr $$^{-1}$$ thereafter, projecting complete reef loss by 2060, some 40 years earlier than previous estimates. Our machine learning-assisted approach demonstrates that high-frequency satellite monitoring can reveal area loss dynamics invisible to conventional decadal-scale assessments, providing a framework for establishing quantitative baselines in data-sparse reef systems globally.

Source: Scientific Reports

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-67490-1

Authors: Zayad Al-Zayer, Philippa Mason, Thomas Teillet, Volker Vahrenkamp, Cédric M. John

Institutions: Queen Mary University of London, Imperial College London, University of Potsdam, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies

Subfield: Ecology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Life below water, Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,690