Beyond capacity expansion: replacement and degradation-compensation requirements for future PV deployment
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Introduction Large-scale photovoltaic (PV) deployment makes module lifetime, performance degradation, and capacity renewal important for both long-term power-system planning and circular-economy management. Methods In this study, GCAM baseline PV capacity and generation pathways were linked with a cohort-based effective-capacity accounting framework to estimate the additional PV module capacity required to maintain the same PV generation targets. The analysis covered 2021–2080 and included SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5 baseline pathways, with utility-scale PV, the PV module component of PV with storage, and rooftop PV represented separately. Additional module requirements were attributed to capacity-expansion additions, replacement capacity additions, and degradation-compensation additions. The effects of fixed lifetime, Weibull lifetime, lifetime extension, repowering, and alternative annual degradation rates were then compared. Results The results showed that global PV capacity targets reached 12.2, 10.6, and 11.1 TW by 2080 under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5 baseline pathways, respectively. Under the reference lifetime case and a 0.5% yr-1 degradation rate, cumulative additional module requirements during 2021–2080 were 22.2, 18.8, and 19.9 TW. Under the native GCAM model-period formulation, 47.7% of cumulative SSP2 additions were attributed to capacity expansion, 24.9% to replacement, and 27.5% to degradation compensation. Lifetime and degradation assumptions strongly affected the results, with cumulative additions ranging from 15.5 to 22.7 TW under SSP2 baseline. Regionally, China, India, the United States, EU15, and the Middle East accounted for 55.4% of cumulative additions in the SSP2 baseline reference case. Technologically, utility-scale PV and rooftop PV contributed 70.2% and 28.9%, respectively. Discussion These findings indicate that future PV module requirements cannot be represented by net capacity growth alone; replacement and degradation-compensation needs must also be considered. Lifetime extension and low-degradation operation can reduce additional manufacturing pressure and provide more time for recycling, reuse, and material-circularity systems to mature.
Institutions: Shenzhen University, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, State Grid Corporation of China (China), Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing General Research Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, Jimei University
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,801
OpenAlex ID: W7204182107