Rising food prices and widening nutrition gaps in Mexico: The cost of nutrient-dense and ultra-processed foods before, during, and after COVID-19
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global food systems, contributing to rising food prices and altering the affordability of healthy diets. This study examined the relationship between nutrient density of foods, food prices and inflation in Mexico before, during, and after the pandemic. Foods from the ENSANUT dietary survey were assigned to 4 categories using the NOVA classification system and were linked to nutrient composition data and national food price series from 2012 to 2025. The Nutrient Rich Food Index (NRF9.3) was a measure of nutrient density. Affordability was defined as nutrient density relative to price per 100 kcal. Trends in prices and inflation were analyzed using a panel data model with food-level fixed effects. Minimally processed foods had substantially higher nutrient density (NRF9.3: 202.2) than processed (15.7) and ultra-processed foods (UPFs; 5.4), but were also markedly more expensive per 100 kcal. Across the study period, higher nutrient density was consistently associated with higher prices per calorie. During the pandemic, inflation for minimally processed foods increased by 1.64 percentage points (p.p.; p = 0.064) relative to pre-pandemic levels, and by 6.04 p.p. in the post-pandemic period (p < 0.001). Processed foods and culinary ingredients experienced additional inflation of 1.99 p.p. and 1.21 p.p., respectively, during the pandemic, while no significant differences across processing categories were observed post-pandemic. Following the onset of the pandemic, food prices increased across all processing categories. Because minimally processed foods had higher baseline prices, similar inflation rates translated into a widening affordability gap between more and less nutritious foods. These findings suggest that foods aligned with dietary recommendations became relatively less affordable during a period of economic disruption, potentially incentivizing substitution toward lower-cost, energy-dense UPFs. Policies that improve the affordability and price stability of nutrient-dense foods may be critical to support healthy diets under conditions of economic volatility.
Source: PLoS ONE
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,382
Funders: Oklahoma Tobacco Settlement Endowment Trust, Johannes Kepler Universität Linz, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz, Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Welch Foundation, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Pittsburgh Foundation, American Heart Association, Hearing Health Foundation, Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas, Dr. Miriam and Sheldon G. Adelson Medical Research Foundation, United States - Israel Binational Science Foundation, Hope for Depression Research Foundation, Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, Michigan State University, McGill University, Uehara Memorial Foundation, Colgate University, Stiftelsen Promobilia, Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development, Marfan Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Fulbright Association, Sunbeam Foundation, Fondation Maladies Rares, Fundación Iberdrola España, Paul G. Allen Frontiers Group, Kaken Pharmaceutical, European Partnership on Metrology, Beijing Health Promotion Association, Institution of Engineering and Technology, European Commission, National Research Foundation Singapore, Ministry of Education - Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Danmarks Grundforskningsfond, Københavns Universitet, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nambu University, Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS, Cancerfonden, Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale, Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, National Research Foundation of Korea, Hjärt-Lungfonden, Jacobs Foundation, Karolinska Institutet, Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse, Sapienza Università di Roma, Narodowe Centrum Nauki, Vetenskapsrådet, Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, China Scholarship Council, Veterinární a Farmaceutická Univerzita Brno, Österreichische Forschungsförderungsgesellschaft, Fujian Provincial Department of Science and Technology, Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Ritsumeikan University, Norges Forskningsråd, Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province, Novo Nordisk Fonden, Canada First Research Excellence Fund, Stockholm läns landsting, Fundación Biodiversidad, Institut de Valorisation des Données, National Institutes of Health, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Council on Ocean Affairs Science and Technology, California State University, University of California, San Francisco, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research, Broad Institute, Stephenson Cancer Center, Buffett Institute for Global Affairs, Northwestern University, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Fonds de Recherche du Québec - Santé, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Helse Sør-Øst RHF, European Regional Development Fund, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Samisk nasjonal kompetansetjeneste – psykisk helsevern og rus, Ulusal Metroloji Enstitüsü, Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştirma Kurumu, Shanghai Shuguang Program, Institute for Protein Research, Osaka University, Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong Province, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Office of Naval Research, National Institute of Mental Health, National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders, National Institute of Nursing Research, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Center for Global Health, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, H2020 European Research Council, HORIZON EUROPE European Innovation Council, Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province, Novo Nordisk USA, Curt Bergfors Foundation
OpenAlex ID: W7204226053