Work

Counterintuitive Landscape Ecological Risk in Low-Sensitivity Areas: A Dual-Coupling Analysis of Land Use and Landscape Pattern in the Dianchi Lake Urban Region, Kunming, China

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Ecological sensitivity zoning is widely used in conservation planning, yet the interaction between land-use structure and landscape ecological risk across different sensitivity levels remains underexplored. We propose a dual-coupling framework—integrating (i) land-use composition and (ii) landscape patterns with ecological sensitivity—to assess landscape ecological risk. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighted sensitivity factors across five units (Levels 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9). The entropy weight method derived the Landscape Ecological Risk Index (LERI), while ridge regression and partial least squares regression (PLSR) identified key explanatory land-use variables. When land use is included in the sensitivity zoning, unexpectedly, the low-sensitivity zone (Level 3) exhibited the highest LERI (0.7588), whereas the non-sensitive zone (Level 1) recorded the lowest (0.1732). Ridge regression at the sensitivity-level scale revealed grassland (β = 0.255, VIP = 1.596) as the strongest positive correlate of LERI. Construction land showed a negative association at this scale (β = −0.433, VIP = 1.299). Grid-scale validation, however, indicated that the construction-land relationship is scale dependent, with grassland remaining the only factor consistently positive across both scales. PLSR validated these sensitivity-level trends, with grassland ranking highest in VIP across both models. Mechanistically, low-sensitivity zones feature a mixed mosaic of cropland, grassland, and construction land, intensifying landscape fragmentation. Conversely, non-sensitive zones, dominated by uniform construction land, exhibit landscape homogenization and correspondingly lower risk. This study challenges the traditional assumption that high ecological sensitivity inherently dictates high risk, emphasizing that land-use-driven landscape fragmentation in low-sensitivity zones warrants priority in ecological risk assessments.

Source: Land

DOI: 10.3390/land15091567

Authors: Yangzixian Yang, Shuyu Wang, Liangwei Xu, Zhiying Li

Institutions: City University of Macau, Yunnan University

Language: English

Topic: Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Life on land, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137