Drivers and dynamics of Aedes albopictus expansion in 41 European countries: past reconstruction and future projections
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Background Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive mosquito and a competent vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Since its introduction into Europe in 1979, it has expanded across large parts of the continent, increasing the risk of arboviral transmission. Its spread is driven by the interplay of human mobility, trade, and climatic conditions that are increasingly favorable to its establishment and persistence. However, these drivers are often modelled separately, limiting coherent uncertainty propagation. Methods We developed a unified mathematical model that jointly infers human-mediated introductions, dispersal, and biologically grounded climatic suitability from three decades of invasion data across over 1200 European spatial units. Unlike previous approaches that treat these processes independently, our model integrates them simultaneously, enabling consistent uncertainty propagation and projections under multiple greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Findings Our model reconstructs past expansion with high predictive accuracy and quantifies the relative contributions of gravity-based human mobility, short-range spatial diffusion, national borders, and five biologically grounded climatic variables. Beyond historical reconstruction, we project expansion under three contrasting greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the next 25 years. We estimate that the proportion of the European population living in areas where Aedes albopictus is present could increase from approximately 49% today to more than 90% by 2049. Our framework also classifies countries into four distinct risk trajectories, generating openly accessible projections directly usable for surveillance planning and public health preparedness. Implications of all the available evidence Arboviral outbreaks often follow mosquito establishment within a decade. By identifying areas where invasion is imminent, our results highlight critical windows for intensified surveillance and targeted vector control. Quantifying future expansion and population exposure over the next 25 years provides directly actionable information for anticipatory planning of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika prevention in Europe. Integrating mobility, biology, and climate this unified framework offers a realistic basis for preparedness strategies in a warming and increasingly connected continent.
Source: HAL
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7204313212