Work

A Hybrid ARX and Deep Sequence Learning Architecture for Multivariate Industrial Time-Series Forecasting: An Application in Fluid Catalytic Cracking

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Multi-parametric industrial time-series forecasting is important for predictive monitoring, soft sensing, and decision support in complex process industries. This study proposes a process-informed hybrid ARX-residual deep sequence architecture for short-horizon multi-output forecasting of fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCCU) product yields. The model combines a frozen linear ARX branch with causal temporal convolution, a three-layer GRU, causal self-attention, additive attention pooling, residual gating, and a consistency-regularized multi-output objective. Experiments were performed on an open simulated FCCU benchmark containing 20,160 one-minute observations from seven normal and disturbed operating scenarios. The leakage-controlled pipeline uses scenario-wise chronological splitting, train-only median imputation and standardization, exclusion of fault-timing metadata and direct algebraic target components, and 30 min causal windows for five-minute-ahead forecasting. Across ten prespecified random seeds, the proposed model achieved a historical-test RMSE of 0.022809 ± 0.000116, compared with 0.022751 for ARX-like Ridge. Dependence-aware statistical analyses did not establish a consistent statistical advantage for either model across the evaluated runs. Rolling-origin evaluation likewise showed similar point accuracy, while leave-one-scenario-out evaluation revealed severe extrapolation failure for the unseen pressure-drop scenario. The results support the reproducibility of the proposed architecture and the importance of the ARX-based dynamic structure, but they do not establish the statistical superiority of the full deep residual architecture. Independent industrial data or newly prespecified simulation trajectories are required for confirmatory external validation.

Source: Algorithms

DOI: 10.3390/a19090727