Work

Trade-driven diffusion of carbon dioxide removal exacerbates the decrease in global health co-benefits from the Paris Agreement

Year: 2026

Type: preprint

Abstract: The governance of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is of importance in seeking for climate mitigation pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement, particularly given that CDR has opportunity cost as it may reduce the health co-benefits of achieving net-zero emissions by sustaining fossil fuel use and associated air pollutants. Yet the global heterogeneity of this impact remains unclear, even though CDR trade already emerges in some developed nations. By developing an integrated modeling framework, we show that CDR technology portfolios with CDR trade would lead to increased fossil fuel use and reduced reliance on biomass than that without CDR trade, with the global mean CDR opportunity cost raising from 4.3 to 6.2 USD2020/tCO 2 . For a few biomass-abundant regions, however, trade can lower the CDR opportunity cost, since reductions in air pollutant emissions associated with forgone biomass-based decarbonization outweigh the increases from sustained fossil fuels. Our research provides a reference for shaping a health-considered CDR pricing that goes beyond CDR technology cost merely, and enhancing the realism of health-considered climate mitigation policymaking.

Source: Research Square

DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10722747/v1