Basin-Scale Vegetation Sensitivity to Relative Humidity Variability Across Türkiye Under CMIP6 SSP Pathways
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Relative humidity (RH) provides complementary information on atmospheric moisture conditions that is not captured by precipitation alone. This study characterizes basin-scale RH-associated vegetation sensitivity across Türkiye’s 25 hydrographic basins using MODIS MOD13A1 NDVI observations for 2000–2024 and processed CMIP6-derived RH products for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 at the 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100 single-year horizons. MODIS and climate-model products are summarized independently at basin scale, avoiding pixel-level fusion across different native resolutions. The archived 25-by-4 pathway sensitivity matrix is evaluated using cross-pathway dispersion, a robust median-magnitude check, hierarchical clustering with silhouette diagnostics, and explicit percentile-based hotspot criteria. Mean absolute sensitivity is 0.0244, 0.0236, 0.0368, and 0.0386 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Antalya, Küçük Menderes, Konya Closed, Ceyhan, and Aras satisfy the magnitude and persistence criteria, and all five also exceed the upper-quartile threshold for median absolute sensitivity. Silhouette diagnostics do not support a unique three-cluster solution, favoring explicit threshold-based response classes. The results are interpreted as comparative basin screening rather than causal attribution or validated vegetation forecasting. Because the retained processed products do not preserve model/member provenance or the horizon-level intermediate values used to generate the pathway index, model-specific and predictive interpretations are deliberately avoided.
Source: Climate
DOI: 10.3390/cli14090179
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,172
OpenAlex ID: W7204887977