Data from Radiation Risk of Screening-Detected Diffuse Goiter in a Belarusian Cohort Exposed as Children or Adolescents to Iodine-131 after Chernobyl
Year: 2026
Type: other
Abstract: Background: We previously reported a significantly increased risk of thyroid cancer due to radioactive iodine-131 after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident in a cohort of children and adolescents from Belarus. Radiation-related cancer risks were five times higher among those with diffuse goiter; however, the relationship between radiation dose and diffuse goiter is not well understood. Methods: We used logistic regression to analyze data from 10,278 study participants [mean thyroid dose = 0.63 gray (Gy)] who were screened 10 to 15 years after exposure according to a standardized protocol, which specified thyroid size assessment by both ultrasound and palpation. Results: Diffuse goiter was identified in 1,811 subjects and was significantly associated with 131I dose (P < 0.001). The linear model provided the best fit to the data at doses <0.5 Gy [odds ratio (OR) at 1 Gy = 2.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.70–3.41] and linear–exponential model at doses <1.5 Gy (OR at 1 Gy = 1.84). Age at exposure and indicators of iodine deficiency both before the accident (place of residence) and during screening (urinary iodine levels) significantly modified the dose-response (all P values < 0.01). Conclusions: The first systematic evaluation of radiation risks of diffuse goiter after environmental exposure found a strong, statistically significant association with thyroid dose. Impact: Our study shows that radiation exposure is associated with a significantly increased risk of developing diffuse goiter. Future epidemiologic studies of iodine-deficient irradiated populations should assess thyroid size.
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W7204944202
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