Work

Synergistic effects of climatic drivers and anthropogenic land degradation on cascading geomorphic hazards in Iran

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Environmental hazard adaptation frameworks have predominantly focused on susceptibility to isolated hazards, often overlooking the complex dynamics of cascading land degradation. This study assessed the synergistic impacts of anthropogenic and climatic drivers on cascading geomorphic hazards in Iran. Our framework integrated land degradation models (MEDALUS and RUSLE) with downscaled outputs from 23 General Circulation Models. We introduced the Dust Hotspot Severity Index (DHSI) utilizing a multi-threshold spatial intersection of Aerosol Optical Depth anomalies. Our analysis revealed hydro-aeolian telecoupling, in which upstream hydrological alterations drive downstream aeolian dynamics. Severe upstream soil erosion and the expansion of hydrological infrastructure have reduced environmental flows to downstream wetlands, triggering neo-playa formation. The subsequent accumulation of erodible sediments transforms desiccated wetland and lake beds- such as Lakes Urmia and Hamun- into hyper-productive dust sources (DHSI > 20%). Copula-based ensemble projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario for the near-future period (2026–2050) indicate that desertification and water erosion rates will increase by 17.53% and 15.30%, respectively. The spatial extent of moderate-to-severe cascading hazard potential (encompassing desertification, water erosion, and dust emissions) is projected to expand from a historical baseline of 45.30% to 58.60%. These findings demonstrate how the convergence of unsustainable resource management and climatic drivers pushes arid landscapes toward cascading multi-hazard regimes.

Source: Scientific Reports

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-75801-9

Authors: Neda Mohseni, Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari, Amir Mohseni

Institutions: Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, CRC CARE, University of Newcastle Australia

Language: English

Topic: Soil erosion and sediment transport

Subfield: Soil Science

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life on land, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,690