Bureaucratic Deflection: Neither Foreigners nor the Rich Are the Economy's True Enemy.
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: In 2023 Portugal’s government named Golden Visa property buyers and new short-term tourist lets as causes of the housing crisis and of price pressure. This paper tests that sentence with official INE, SEF/AIMA, and Social Security figures, with the content of the rehabilitation file (Decree-Law 307/2009, art. 77.º-A), and with Danish and German fiscal accounts published by motive. Inflation is treated as over-creation of fiat money, including bank-created deposits, not as a price index. A visa edit that leaves credit, debt, and licensing untouched is deflection, not anti-inflation policy. Foreign residents were about 1.60 million at end-2025; ARI principals were a sliver. Non-resident-tax buyers were 5 percent of 2025 sales and falling while the House Price Index rose 17.6 percent after the property route closed. Completions remained far below the 2001 peak. Work-first fiscal design prints a surplus; cash-first design does not. The dangerous foreign interest is the untaxed or lightly taxed structure that crowds out SMEs, not the individual who buys a home to settle. Uganda’s Refugees Act (work-and-plot) is the entry model to copy; Land Act s. 40 leasehold-by-nationality and a ban on modular delivery are not.
Author: Kayser, Kai Hermann
Language: English
Topic: Housing Market and Economics
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7208730559
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