Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This paper studies the extent of the effects that the ideology and radicality of a Colombian president has on the nation’s economic indicators: specifically inflation and exchange rate. Using monthly data from Banco de la Republica and ideological survey scores from Latin American Parliamentary Elites Project (PELA-USAL), we constructed linear, polynomial, and XGBoost regression models alongside time series analyses to test these results. The results showed an especially strong negative correlation (r = -0.68) between a president’s ideology score and the exchange rate, suggesting that right wing presidents are associated with a stronger valuation for the COP (Colombian peso), on average. However, XGBoost feature importance rankings show that the ideological variables measured are weak predictors relative to a lagged economic momentum. Finally, we extended our findings to a real-time test against Colombia’s 2026 presidential election, to try to understand what could happen once the new president is elected.
Source: Scholarly review .
DOI: 10.70121/001c.169634
Authors: David E. Visbal, Samuel Pertuz
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7208737817
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