MODEL ADOPTION #1859: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.0% — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No single rule survives — the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter is a regime overlay, not an E8-geometry timing edge. It contradicts the model's core FADE polarity logic, which already encodes phase via rhythm nodes. Adding a quarterly macro filter would double-count phase and dilute the timing signal. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+6.2pp) is likely an artifact of removing 3-4 large losing trades in a 97-sample backtest — not a systematic edge. Net PnL would drop ~25-30% due to fewer trades, and average R per trade would not improve proportionally. Over 3-6 months, the filter would miss strong momentum shorts during prolonged distribution, degrading profit. RISK: Overfitting to a small sample; regime-dependence (if market stays distribution-heavy, filter blocks all shorts, killing the FADE edge); phase misclassification (Gods-Clock rhythm vs. quarterly calendar — mismatch causes false filters). TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 200-trade shadow replay o Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7208811242
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: