LAB #1849 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ ASIAN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.0% to 63.2% — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ ASIAN with 5 conf — improves win rate from 32.0% to 63.2% (+31.2pp, n=19) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, this filter would have blocked the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (both outside USDCHF/Asian session) and the AUDUSD SHORT loss, while leaving the EURJPY and GBPUSD winners untouched. That would have removed 3 losses from 10 trades, shifting the window win rate from ~50% to ~71% (5 wins/7 trades), with a positive PnL delta of roughly +2.5R (assuming average loss ~1R). The open GBPUSD SHORT and rejected USDJPY SHORT are unaffected, so no missed winners. However, the filter would also have blocked the EURUSD SHORT (currently open, unknown outcome) — a potential missed winner if it closes positive. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the filter's claimed +31.2pp win-rate improvement on n=19 is statistically fragile (95% CI roughly ±20pp), so the true edge could be anywh Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7208816295
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