MODEL ADOPTION #1919: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.0% to 42.1% — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the "min confirmations ≥6" filter is a statistical artifact, not an E8-geometry edge. It does not align with the Gods-Clock rhythm logic (which already defines entry timing via phase/fade polarity), and it would blindly censor entries without referencing the clock's structural state. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+10.1pp) is real in backtest but comes from removing early entries that are *already* low-conviction per E8's own phase filters — this is redundant. Net effect: fewer trades, lower absolute profit (missed TP2 winners like the EURJPY short), and no improvement in R-multiple or profit factor per trade. The 42.1% win rate is still below the live model's required threshold for positive expectancy given typical RR. RISK: Overfitting to a 354-sample window; in fast-trending regimes, confirmations lag and you'll miss the exact entries E8's fade polarity is designed to catch (counter-trend reversals at clock extremes). This degra Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7210273046
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