Sector-detailed urban greenhouse gas emission futures derived from the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 ensemble
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Emission reductions required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement have been extensively analyzed using integrated assessment modeling scenarios. However, the contribution of urban areas in aggregate, globally, by region and by city type, remains underexplored. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework to downscale global emissions pathways to urban areas, differentiated by region and city type. Ambitious climate change mitigation could deliver 21 GtCO 2 e of greenhouse gas emission reductions in urban areas by 2050 relative to a continuation of current policies and trends, primarily by transitioning away from fossil fuels in electricity and heat supply, deep decarbonization of industry, and mitigation in the transport and buildings sectors. Mitigation potential is concentrated in established and rapidly growing cities, reflecting their high current per-capita emission levels. Asian regions with high urbanization levels dominate global urban emissions and reduction potentials. The findings underscore the central role of cities in achieving global climate targets and highlight the importance of differentiated mitigation strategies across regions and city types.
Source: Environmental Research Letters
Authors: Gunnar Luderer, Pascal Weigmann, Mark Roelfsema, Felix Creutzig, Angel Hsu, Jarmo S Kikstra, Laurin Köhler-Schindler, Fabrice Lecuyer, Diego Manya-Gutierrez, Zhixin Zhang, Lara Aleluia Reis, Gerd Angelkorte, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Maksym Bondarenko, Vassilis Daioglou, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Laurent Drouet, Jakob Dürrwächter, Oliver Fricko, Xiangwen Fu, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mel George, Alex K Hagen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Siddharth Joshi, Alessio Mastrucci, Osamu Nishiura, Brian O’Neill, Dominik Paprotny, Ricarda Rosemann, Roberto Schaeffer, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi
Institutions: Technische Universität Berlin, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, University of Sussex, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Imperial College London, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, University of Southampton, Utrecht University, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Ritsumeikan University, University of Szczecin, Politecnico di Milano, Graz University of Technology
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,045
OpenAlex ID: W7211871582