LAB #1938 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.9% to 42.0% (+10.1pp, — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.9% to 42.0% (+10.1pp, n=352) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum of 6 confirmations would have filtered out most of the rizzy5m entries shown, which are the primary source of losses (GBPUSD SHORT, XAUUSD SHORT x2, AUDUSD SHORT, EURUSD SHORT). Of the 9 live trades listed, 5 are rizzy5m entries; of those, 4 are losses and 1 is a win. Removing those would eliminate 4 losses and 1 win, shifting the window from 4W/5L to 3W/1L (excluding the open/rejected), a raw win-rate jump from ~44% to 75% on remaining trades. However, this also removes the EURJPY SHORT win, so the net PnL delta is positive but smaller than the raw win-rate suggests — likely +2 to +3R over the window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter will likely raise win rate meaningfully (as backtested) but at the cost of trade frequency — rizzy5m is a high-volume signal, and cu Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7211871815
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