Work

Beyond catch location, individual fish traits add little predictive power for DDX and PCBs in Southern California sport fishes

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Legacy contaminants (DDX and PCBs) persist in fishes of the Southern California Bight, yet most consumption advisories rely on species- and region-level averages that ignore within-species variation among harvested individuals. We evaluated whether individual traits improve prediction of contaminant burden in a "fish in hand," and whether any gains can be achieved using information available to anglers at capture (e.g., size, region) versus traits requiring post-hoc laboratory analysis (e.g., age, stable-isotope-inferred trophic ecology). Using individually sampled, angler-caught fish collected across the Southern California Bight with associated metadata, we compared five nested predictive frameworks of increasing complexity, from species alone to models adding region, angler-measurable traits (length, lifestyle), spatially explicit sediment-contamination estimates, and laboratory-derived age and trophic-isotope metrics. Region - when informed by underlying sediment contaminant burden maps - substantially improved predictions of individual contaminant concentrations, whereas fish length contributed little additional predictive power. Among laboratory-assessed traits, isotope-derived trophic ecology provided the largest improvement, but gains were modest relative to location-based models. Overall, our results indicate limited potential for individual traits beyond catch location to meaningfully refine advisories, and support place-based guidance that leverages spatial contaminant prediction tools to inform safer consumption of recreationally caught fish.

Source: Marine Pollution Bulletin

DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2026.120550