Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Reliable prediction of detonation behavior in condensed-phase explosives requires models that offer quantitative robustness while maintaining computational efficiency for practically sized (centimeter-scale) systems. Advanced Detonation Shock Dynamics (ADSD) builds on the classical Detonation Shock Dynamics (DSD) framework by incorporating shock acceleration. In this work, we introduce methodological advances to ADSD to improve its ability to describe shock-to-detonation transition (SDT), diameter effect, and detonation failure with reactive-burn level accuracy at a substantially reduced computational cost. We then perform a comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis of the ADSD model parameters for PBX 9502 using experimental data from three experimental benchmarks: SDT, the diameter effect, and the shape effect. Statistical characterization is performed using UQ, yielding posterior parameter distributions that capture uncertainty and correlations; notably, many parameters showed low standard deviations, suggesting high confidence in their inferred values. The UQ-informed parameter sets are subsequently used to simulate corner-turning experiments, yielding predicted dead zones that show strong agreement with experimental observations. This combined optimization and Bayesian UQ framework provides the first systematic quantification of uncertainty in ADSD, enhancing confidence in its predictive capability and laying the groundwork for broader application of reduced-order detonation models in safety-critical engineering contexts.
Source: Journal of Applied Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0344902
Institution: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Language: English
Subfield: Mechanics of Materials
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,500
OpenAlex ID: W7211973144