Work

Stage-dependent shifts in climate and human controls on carbon storage and habitat quality under ecological restoration and urbanization

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Achieving concurrent gains in carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ) is central to climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation, yet how their controlling mechanisms shift under simultaneous ecological restoration and urbanization remains insufficiently understood. Taking Shaanxi Province, China, as a case study, we integrated remote sensing and statistical datasets from 2000 to 2020 with the InVEST model to reconstruct the spatiotemporal dynamics of CS and HQ. Change-point detection and ridge regression were then used to identify stage-dependent shifts in the contributions of vegetation condition, hydroclimatic factors, and human footprint. CS increased across the province, although its growth slowed after 2009, whereas HQ improved overall but declined slightly after 2011. Improvement hotspots were concentrated in restoration zones of northern Shaanxi, while degradation was mainly associated with urban expansion in the Guanzhong region and transport-corridor development. Land-use transitions, characterized by cropland loss and forest and built-up land expansion, structured these spatial patterns. Attribution analysis identified the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and human footprint (HFP) as the primary spatial drivers of both indicators, but their driver patterns diverged across stages. For CS, the dominant limitation shifted from vegetation recovery and human activity toward hydroclimatic factors, especially potential evapotranspiration (PET) and mean temperature (Tavg). For HQ, expanding human disturbance and southward-strengthening thermal stress, particularly maximum temperature (Tmax) and Tavg, became increasingly important. These findings highlight the stage-dependent nature of ecosystem-service indicators and provide spatially explicit evidence for differentiated restoration and adaptive management in the Yellow River Basin.

Source: Ecological Indicators

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115441