Bridging the Population Synthesis of Supermassive Binary Black Holes and the Gravitational Wave Background
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) constrain population properties of supermassive binary black holes (SMBHBs) through the observation of the gravitational wave background (GWB). Unlike other approaches that interpolate population-synthesis libraries or only consider the mean of the strain spectrum, here we capture its full strain probability density directly from semi-analytic population models. We apply our new method to the semi-analytic SMBHB population model, independently reproducing the parameter estimation for this model performed by the NANOGrav Collaboration with their 15-yr data. We also show the extent to which discrete SMBHB contributions to the GWB resolve degeneracies in the population parameter space. Finally, using the source-count intensity as the intermediate product in our calculation, we map PTA observations, as a proof of principle, to the SMBHB model based on the galaxy merger prescriptions from numerical hydrodynamical simulations "Illustris". We find the effect of delay times $τ$ between kiloparsec and subparsec SMBHB separations following galaxy mergers, finding $h_{\rm c}$ spanning $(1$-$6)\times10^{-16}$ and $N_{\rm c}$ spanning $(0.3$-$7.1)\times10^{-3}$ for $τ$ up to 8 Gyr.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7212029787