EEG functional connectivity as a prognostic biomarker of adaptive function in autistic people

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Many autistic people have challenges with adaptive function, impacting education, employment and independent-living goals. Adaptive function outcomes of autistic people vary considerably, which makes planning for future needs challenging. Here, using a developmentally sensitive approach, we investigated if cortico-cortical functional connectivity – a core neurobiological feature that differs in autism – could predict longitudinal changes in adaptive function in autistic people. Using electroencephalography in 150 autistic and 159 non-autistic participants aged 6–31 years, we investigated if mean degree and network organisation (small-world index) predict longitudinal changes in adaptive function over 19-months. We found that small-world index significantly predicted changes in adaptive function in autistic people across the entire age-range. Predictive performance was best for autistic youth (15–24-year-olds), where mean degree and small-world index explained 21 and 30% of additional variance in outcomes, respectively, outperforming measures of intelligence and autistic features. In categorising binary (improved versus not-improved) outcomes, the model containing mean degree had an AUC of 0.84 [95% CI: 0.71–0.97] in 15–24-year-olds, while that containing small-world index had an AUC of 0.76 [95% CI: 0.63–0.89] across the 6–31-year age-range. Both metrics demonstrated properties desired in prognostic biomarkers: high test-retest reliability and convergence with underlying biology (significant associations with genetic variation in brain volume-related genes). Thus, we demonstrate the first evidence that electroencephalography-derived functional connectivity metrics show promise as prognostic biomarkers of adaptive function in autistic people. Potential precision-medicine applications include stratifying participants in clinical trials and identifying those at risk of declining function in clinical settings.

Source: Translational Psychiatry

DOI: 10.1038/s41398-026-04422-7

Authors: Chirag Mehra, Petroula Laiou, Pilar Garcés, Joshua B. Ewen, Eva Loth, Mark H. Johnson, Luke Mason, Emily JH Jones, Tony Charman, Thomas Bourgeron, Jan Buitelaar, Michael Absoud, Mark P. Richardson, Declan Murphy, Jonathan O’Muircheartaigh

Institutions: King's College London, Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children NHS Foundation Trust, Roche (Switzerland), Northwestern University, Lurie Children's Hospital, University of Cambridge, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, Gènes, synapses et cognition, Radboud University Nijmegen, Radboud University Medical Center, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behaviour, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, Evelina London Children's Healthcare

Language: English

Topic: Autism Spectrum Disorder Research

Subfield: Cognitive Neuroscience

Field: Neuroscience

Domain: Life Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $5,290

Funders: Autism Speaks, Wellcome Trust, European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations, Simons Foundation Autism Research Initiative, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Department of Health and Social Care, King's College London, European Commission, Medical Research Council Centre for Neurodevelopmental Disorders, NIHR Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre, Medical Research Council

OpenAlex ID: W7212042816