Work

Global transfers of forest-based carbon units

Year: 2026

Type: preprint

Abstract: The global market for forest-based carbon units is rapidly accelerating, yet tracking it is challenging. Here, we present a comprehensive global public accounting of forest-based carbon projects to assess cross-border transfers of forest-based carbon units. Cross-border carbon unit transfers - projects implemented in one country while carbon units are purchased and retired in another - are a way of achieving cost-effective global emissions reductions and can have many benefits. However, this spatial decoupling may also lead to unexpected negative socio-ecological impacts, such as inequitable distribution of benefits and revenues. We show empirically that the cross-border forest-based carbon market is largely being driven by purchases of carbon units from the global north, with projects being implemented in the Global South. Carbon units are largely being delivered in nations with low governance metrics and purchased in countries with high governance metrics. While we collated the most up to date and comprehensive database possible based on available information, our assessment exposes a lack of transparency in the global forest-based carbon market, and thus we call for a cohesive, publicly accessible database to track cross-border carbon unit flows. To improve transparency and consistency across the market, we provide a blueprint for unifying international, national, and voluntary forest-based carbon registries. At a time of rapid market expansion, this global perspective is essential to critically evaluate whether prevailing models of carbon trading are functioning as intended - or whether they risk entrenching existing global inequities.

Source: Research Square

DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10772906/v1