Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: ABSTRACT Aim Understanding the contemporary environmental conditions determining plant species distributions is crucial. Here, we quantified the relative importance of climatic, edaphic, hydrological, topographic, and land use drivers of the European vascular flora and tested whether driver hierarchies vary across species groups and ecological characteristics, spatial scales and bioregions. Location Europe and adjacent areas. Time Period 1990–2022. Main Taxa Vascular plants. Methods We compiled > 20 million occurrence records from GBIF, EVA and other databases for ~11,500 vascular plant species, mapped onto a 1 km × 1 km grid. Gradient boosted decision trees were fitted with 36 uncorrelated variables and evaluated through spatial block cross‐validation. Variable contributions were assessed using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values at continental and bioregional scales. Using SHAP profiles, we also clustered species with similar environmental responses and tested how these groups relate to life history, growth form, habitat and CSR ecological strategies. Results At the continental scale, climate and soil emerged as the dominant environmental drivers of plant distributions. Six response groups were identified, which showed that less dominant drivers—hydrology, topography and land use and cover—strongly influenced certain species. Groups were significantly associated with ecological characteristics such as growth form. Beyond group‐level differences, we also found clear geographical patterns and scale‐dependent shifts in variable importance: within bioregions, local drivers gained importance relative to continental constraints. Main Conclusions Plant species distributions in Europe are primarily shaped by climate and soil among contemporary environmental drivers, but species‐specific ecological characteristics, scale and spatial context modulate the hierarchy of drivers. Recognizing response diversity is essential to avoid oversimplified generalizations. A multi‐scale framework that integrates climatic gradients with context‐dependent drivers and dispersal limitations will improve predictions of plant biodiversity responses to global change.
Source: Global Ecology and Biogeography
DOI: 10.1111/geb.70308
Authors: Eléonore Chenevois, Gabrielle Deschamps, Cyrille Violle, Sara Si‐Moussi, Idoia Biurrun, Juan Antonio Campos, Klaus Thomas Ecker, Franz Essl, Jean‐Claude Gegout, Behlül Güler, Corrado Marcenò, Aaron Pérez‐Haase, Eszter Ruprecht, Michele De Sanctis, Jozef Šibík, Zvjezdana Stančić, Jens‐Christian Svenning, Wilfried Thuiller
Institutions: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, École nationale des ponts et chaussées, École Pratique des Hautes Études, Université de Montpellier, Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, University of the Basque Country, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, University of Vienna, AgroParisTech, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, Silva, Ecologie et Ecophysiologie Forestières, Université de Lorraine, Dokuz Eylül University, University of Perugia, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat de la Universitat de Barcelona, Universitat de Barcelona, Babeș-Bolyai University, Sapienza University of Rome, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Plant Science and Biodiversity Centre of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, University of Zagreb, Aarhus University
Language: English
Subfield: Ecological Modeling
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Life on land
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $5,000
Funders: Ministero della transizione ecologica, National Research Foundation, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Danmarks Grundforskningsfond, Austrian Science Fund, Eusko Jaurlaritza, Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversite, Office Français de la Biodiversité, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
OpenAlex ID: W7212124917