Work

Evaluating the potential of forest management in mitigating wildfire hazard under climate change

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Wildfires are the primary disturbance in Mediterranean forest ecosystems, where climate change is projected to intensify fire hazard by reducing fuel moisture and altering fire regimes. This study evaluates the long-term effectiveness of four forest management archetypes (risk mitigation, adaptation to climate change, carbon stock promotion, and Business-as-Usual) in reducing future wildfire hazard across four SSP climate scenarios. We utilized a robust methodological framework coupling the medfate stand-level dynamics model with the Fuel Characteristics Classification System to project surface fire rate of spread (ROS) in Pinus nigra and Pinus halepensis stands. We evaluated the change in basal area, shrub cover and ROS across all combinations of management and climate scenarios in the period 2020-2100, analyzing the trade-offs between ROS change and the required treatment intensity in two representative study sites in Spain hosting typical Pinus halepensis (Requena) and Pinus nigra (Montmajor) forest communities. Our results suggest that management efficacy is contingent on site-specific characteristics and climate. The risk mitigation strategy, characterized by the most intensive fuel removal, provides consistent ROS reduction but represents the least cost-efficient choice. In contrast, BAU and carbon stock promotion represent effective alternatives (in terms of treatment intensity) in specific contexts, such as high-warming scenarios for Pinus halepensis or Pinus nigra stands, respectively. The adaptation to climate change strategy (designed to promote shading and moisture) paradoxically increases ROS in unburned, arid plots (Requena). This counter-intuitive outcome is attributed to its weaker shrub control, allowing the understory to become a primary surface fuel.

Source: Ecological Modelling

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111822