Quantitative evaluation of APT attack and defense effectiveness based on variable fuzzy sets
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) is a kind of network security problem characterized by pertinence, complexity and concealment, which is far more harmful than ordinary network attacks, the traditional models cannot accurately describe and analyze its attack and defense effectiveness. To study the effectiveness modeling and evaluation methods of APT attack and defense, this paper focuses on the uncertainty characteristics of APT that different from other network security problems. A new model named APT-VFSEA is constructed to analyze the process and changes of APT from the perspective of efficiency measurement. In order to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of APT attack and defense actions, an efficiency assessment model based on variable fuzzy sets is constructed. Firstly, a method to construct the criteria of APT effectiveness evaluation is designed, which is suitable for both APT attack and defense scenarios. Then, variable fuzzy set is introduced to deal with the uncertainty of APT effectiveness assessment, and an APT effectiveness evaluation model is proposed. Finally, a specific method of APT effectiveness evaluation using this model is given. Experiments on CVE-2017-11882 vulnerability are conducted and compared with the actual attack and defense situation, empirical results show that the proposed model can evaluate the effectiveness of APT attack and defense actions efficiently and accurately.
Source: Scientific Reports
Authors: Xiang Long, Haili Sun, Jingyuan He, Lansheng Han
Language: English
Subfield: Information Systems
Field: Computer Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,690
OpenAlex ID: W7212192273