Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: We develop a framework for offline full-window branch discovery, optionally followed by online continuation with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Three mechanisms drive the branch search: adjoint path-kernel (APK) differentiation balances kernel differentiation and correction-stabilized path perturbation, shifting the optimization from exploration to exploitation; an optimized Gaussian initial law broadens the search over initial-state basins; and loss-weighted mixing across independent runs recombines successful path components. We may then select an interior state using a local loss and continue online with an EnKF. In 40-dimensional Lorenz-96 experiments, the mean offline path RMSE of APK is 4.3 times smaller than that of population weak-$\mathrm{4D\text{-}Var}_x$. The resulting APK-EnKF method has a mean online RMSE 64 times smaller than that of ordinary EnKF.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Author: Ni, Angxiu
Institution: University of California, Irvine
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7212242112