Work

How good are the Ministry of Justice prison population projections?

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Walkforward Research Paper 2026/02. Version 1.0, September 2026. Eighteen editions of the Ministry of Justice prison population projections since 2008, with every central projection scored against what happened at every horizon. The projections have been too high at every horizon, and a forecaster who assumed no change would have beaten them on identical targets. Code at github.com/walkforwardresearch/prisoncap.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22708958

Author: Paton, Hamish

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7212254223

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