MODEL ADOPTION #2059: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.6% — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the min-confirmation filter is a statistical artifact, not an E8-geometry edge. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+1.6pp) is within noise for n=1352; the same-window "100% win" is a 4-trade mirage. Filtering low-confirmation signals will cut trade count ~15–20%, and in trending regimes (where E8 rhythm accelerates), early entries at 3–4 confirmations are precisely where the fade polarity captures the best RR. Net effect: win-rate may tick up, but total R-multiple likely stagnates or drops due to missed fast-moving winners (USDJPY, XAUUSD breakouts). RISK: Overfitting to a chop-heavy XAUUSD window; the filter systematically delays entries, degrading the timing edge of Gods-Clock rhythm (which relies on early confirmation alignment). It also introduces a lookahead bias in backtests if confirmations are counted post-entry. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 90-day replay-bench on the live engine's historical tick data (not candle Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7212266025
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