LAB #2043 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.9% (+4.9pp, n=65) — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.9% (+4.9pp, n=65) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a NZDUSD LONG-only filter would have zero impact on the current live window — none of the 10 trades listed involve NZDUSD. The filter is direction- and pair-specific, so it cannot alter outcomes for XAUUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, or EURJPY trades. Expected win-rate delta over this window: 0.0pp, PnL delta: $0. The claimed +4.9pp improvement is entirely out-of-sample relative to your live book. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a NZDUSD LONG filter could add value only if NZDUSD long setups are a meaningful fraction of your total trade flow. Given your current live mix (heavily XAUUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY), the filter would rarely trigger, so aggregate win-rate lift would likely be <0.5pp. Risk: the +4.9pp is from n=65 — high variance; a 95% confidence interval spans roughly ±12pp, so the true eff Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7212266580
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: