Work

From statements to model input data: Traceability and consistency of qualitative and quantitative scenarios in a participatory foresight exercise

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: In scenario development, many studies aim to clarify how robust and consistent scenarios are constructed, but often rely on methodological descriptions and theoretical frameworks. This paper seeks to offer a process more transparent by illustrating through an example the full process of translating stakeholders’ statements into final storylines and model inputs. This analysis is based on a participatory workshop conducted in a polluted agricultural catchment in Alsace, France (115 km²), involving non-mixed panels of stakeholders (i.e., farmers, public officials, water managers, and local authorities). The workshop aimed to co-design desirable scenarios for farming systems and practices in the catchment in 2070 that are less polluting, more resilient to climate change, and adapted to local conditions. Both the workshop and modelling were conducted under frugality constraints (i.e., short sessions, use of existing models and databases) for reasons of reproducibility, emphasizing the substantial effort required to transform stakeholders’ inputs into consistent outputs. The participatory nature of the process requires a high level of transparency. This paper details the process of modifying stakeholders’ contributions to develop a robust and coherent storyline, and to translate this envisioned future into inputs for conceptual agro-hydrological modelling.

Source: Futures

DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103931

Authors: Lou Weidenfeld, Rémi Barbier, Sara Fernandez, Sylvain Payraudeau