MODEL ADOPTION #2076: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.0% to 42.1% — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the "min confirmations ≥ 6" filter is a statistical artifact, not a geometric timing edge. E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic already encodes confirmation thresholds via phase alignment; adding a fixed count (6) is arbitrary and regime-dependent, not derived from the clock's harmonic structure. The backtest's +10.2pp is likely a selection bias from the XAUUSD loss cluster (3 losses removed) — not a repeatable rule. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate would appear to rise ~8–10pp in the same window, but total PnL gain is marginal (removing 3 losses + 1 win ≈ net positive only because XAUUSD losses were larger). Over 3–6 months, the filter would cut trade count by ~20–30%, miss fast-trend winners (especially in EURJPY and USDJPY), and likely reduce absolute profit despite higher win rate. The 62% confidence is too low for live capital. RISK: Overfitting to a specific volatility regime (e.g., the recent XAUUSD chop). In trending markets, waiting fo Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7212403987
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