The Architecture of Luck: A Continuous-Time Stochastic Model for Opportunity Maximization
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This paper presents a formal, continuous-time stochastic framework for opportunity maximization and dynamic exposure under uncertainty. By framing "luck" as a controllable convex optimization problem rather than a passive variable, we model opportunity flux (dO_t) via Itô stochastic differential equations and derive the optimal policy using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) formulation. The model introduces three key parameters: the exposure radius (R_t), structural agility (\tau), and environmental variance (\sigma_{\text{env}}^2). We establish the verification conditions for continuous state spaces and demonstrate how dynamic resource allocation minimizes downside risk while maximizing tail-event opportunity capture. Applied to decision theory and economic systems, the model provides an explicit strategy for maintaining optimal exposure in high-variance, non-stationary environments.
Author: Hasan, Ratul Hasan
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7212694645
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