Work

Calibrating subgrid parametrizations of single-column ocean models via simulation-based inference

Year: 2026

Type: preprint

Abstract: Subgrid parametrizations of vertical mixing in ocean models depend on free coefficients that cannot be measured directly and must be calibrated against high-fidelity references such as large-eddy simulations (LES). Existing approaches return point estimates and leave the associated uncertainty unquantified, a limitation when the inverse problem is ill-posed or when distinct parameter configurations fit the data comparably well. Simulation-based inference (SBI) addresses exactly this: given a prior and access to the simulator, it approximates the full posterior over parameters without requiring a tractable likelihood, at a cost set by the number of simulator evaluations. We apply it to \texttt{tunax}, a JAX-based single-column ocean model, to calibrate the coefficients of its $k$--$\varepsilon$ closure. A blockwise PCA summary statistic compresses the simulator output along the depth axis while preserving its forcing--horizon--variable structure, making inference tractable at modest budgets. We compare neural posterior estimation and its sequential variants against a recent training-free approach built on a tabular foundation model. The latter recovers informative posteriors from a few hundred simulator calls, outperforming the trained estimators at every budget considered.

Source: arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2609.13242

Authors: Cabezas, Luben M. C., Wendling, Sacha, Gallard, Aurèle, Mouttapa, Gabriel, Sommer, Julien Le, Rodrigues, Pedro L. C.