Coverage-aware screening of persistent groundwater-level decline across a global compilation of monitored aquifers: code, frozen outputs and audit trail
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: This project holds the analysis code, frozen intermediate outputs, tables, figures and audit trail for a coverage-aware screening framework that asks which aquifers remain credible persistent groundwater-level decline candidates once record continuity, serial dependence, multiple testing, monitoring density and spatial dispersion are all treated explicitly. The analysis uses the public annual groundwater-level archive and the 1,693 aquifer-system polygons released with Jasechko et al. (2024), archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10003697. A confirmatory core of 24,913 monitoring stations, each contributing at least 21 consecutive annual levels, is analysed directly in groundwater levels using Theil-Sen slopes, Hamed-Rao-modified Mann-Kendall tests and Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery-rate control, then synthesised with station-balanced and equal-area-cell-balanced sensitivity analyses and gap-safe decline persistence. WHAT THIS IS NOT. The strongest class reported is a persistent groundwater-level decline candidate, which is an observational direction-and-coverage state. It is not a groundwater-drought classification, not a volumetric groundwater-storage depletion estimate, and not an attribution to pumping, recharge deficit or management. Non-significance is not reported as stability, and absence of adequate monitoring evidence is kept distinct from evidence of no decline. The resulting map is an evidence-screening product within the available monitoring compilation, not a globally representative prevalence estimate. Contents are organised in eight folders: manuscript, code, stage outputs, tables, figures, quality control, audits, and a source-data pointer. Every file is listed with its SHA-256 in 00_MANIFEST_sha256.csv. The source archive is not redistributed here; 08_inputs_pointer/INPUTS.md gives the DOI, the row counts and the steps needed to reproduce the analysis from the original deposit. Current archive: version 2.8
Source: OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
Authors: Fatih DİKBAŞ, Devrim ALKAYA
Language: English
Subfield: Water Science and Technology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7213306193