Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: What can a finished text reveal about the process that produced it? Drawing on Turing's imitation game and statistical decision theory, this article examines the limits of AI-text detection as an inference from a completed object to an unobserved history. For two known source distributions with equal prior probabilities, a standard identity gives the minimum average classification error as half their probability overlap. This overlap is one minus their total variation distance. Perfect detection therefore requires nonoverlapping distributions; useful discrimination does not. In practice, the problem is harder: human and machine writing form changing families of distributions, posterior probabilities depend on base rates, and ``AI-written'' becomes ambiguous when people and software contribute to the same text. Turing's interrogator can ask another question; a detector restricted to finished prose cannot. Distinguishability, source attribution, authentication, and compliance are different inferential tasks. The paper's own documented human-AI provenance shows what a production history can reveal that a binary label cannot.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Author: Schnell, Santiago
Language: English
Subfield: Artificial Intelligence
Field: Computer Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Funder: Dartmouth College
OpenAlex ID: W7213354686