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Monte Carlo simulation outputs from a US infant RSV lower respiratory tract infection incidence model under three nirsevimab scenarios

Year: 2026

Type: dataset

Abstract: Probabilistic outputs from a decision-analytic model of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) medical encounters in a United States birth cohort, developed in collaboration with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Each file contains 10,000 Monte Carlo trials. The "Monte Carlo Simulation Results" sheet gives per-trial encounter counts for three intervention arms (natural history, maternal RSVpreF vaccination, and nirsevimab immunoprophylaxis), each with five outcome series (outpatient and emergency department upper respiratory tract infection, outpatient and emergency department lower respiratory tract infection, and lower respiratory tract infection hospitalizations), by month of age from 0 to 35 months. Row 7 gives the base-case deterministic values and rows 8 to 10,007 the individual trials. The "Distributions" sheet gives percentiles of the simulated distribution for each series and month of age. Three scenarios are included: 50% nirsevimab coverage with the base-case waning profile, 50% coverage with a post-licensure waning profile, and 90% coverage with the base-case waning profile. These outputs were used as the incidence inputs to a modeling study estimating the burden of childhood asthma at age 6 attributable to infant RSV lower respiratory tract infection in the United States.

Source: Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22797653

Authors: Hutton, David, Ortiz, Justin

Institutions: University of Michigan, University of Maryland, Baltimore, University of Maryland School of Medicine

Topic: Respiratory viral infections research

Subfield: Epidemiology

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: green

Funder: University of Maryland, Baltimore

OpenAlex ID: W7213434501

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