Spatial and Temporal characteristics and driving force analysis of vegetation cover change in Shanxi Province, China based on kNDVI and XGBoost-SHAP model
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Introduction Systematically clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation coverage and elucidating its response mechanisms to climatic fluctuations and human activities carries substantial practical implications for advancing the Dual Carbon Strategy and optimizing the pattern of territorial spatial development and conservation across Shanxi Province, China. Methods Based on kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) datasets, multi-source meteorological, topographic and socioeconomic datasets, this study integrated Theil-Sen slope estimation, Mann-Kendall significance test, Hurst exponent, standard deviational ellipse and gravity center migration model to systematically characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation coverage for the period 2000 to 2024 and predict the potential persistence of its future evolution. Meanwhile, an interpretable XGBoost-SHAP machine learning framework was constructed to quantify the independent contributions, nonlinear marginal responses, and temporal evolutionary characteristics of seven driving factors: elevation, slope, aspect, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, population density and nighttime light intensity. Results (1) Temporally, the multi-year average kNDVI of the whole province reached approximately 0.1699, presenting an extremely significant fluctuating upward trend with an annual growth rate of 0.0041. Annual kNDVI ranges from 0.1132 recorded in 2001 to a peak value of 0.2227 in 2024. (2) Spatially, vegetation coverage exhibited a remarkable differentiation pattern of “low values in the north and high values in the south”. Higher kNDVI values were predominantly distributed within the forest-covered mountainous regions of the Taihang, Lüliang, Zhongtiao, and Taiyue Mountains, whereas relatively low values were distributed across the sandy-hilly regions of northern Shanxi and urban agglomerations along the Fen River Valley. Vegetation restoration was observed across 98.02% of the study area, among which roughly 92.18% exhibited an extremely significant improvement. (3) Over 2000–2024, the major axis of vegetation spatial distribution maintained a stable northeast-southwest orientation, accompanied by moderate outward expansion of the standard deviational ellipse, and a general northwestward shift of the vegetation gravity centre. (4) The Hurst exponent indicated that the vegetation improvement trend in 98.03% of the region would persist, while scattered patches of industrial, mining and urban land (accounting for 1.97%) faced the potential vegetation degradation risk. (5) The regional vegetation driving system experienced three evolutionary stages: a single precipitation-dominated natural driving stage (2000–2005), a climate-human coupled transitional stage (2005–2010), and a multi-factor synergistic balanced stage (2010–2020). Precipitation and temperature acted as core climatic drivers, and elevation largely determined the vertical differentiation baseline of vegetation distribution. Population density and nighttime light intensity exerted persistent suppressive effects on vegetation growth. Empirically derived tentative thresholds are identified for major predictors: elevation ∼1,200 m, slope ∼8°, annual mean temperature ∼7.5 °C, annual mean precipitation ∼500 mm, population density 500 persons/km 2 , and nighttime light intensity ∼5. These values can serve as reference boundaries for differentiating ecological conservation zones from human-disturbed zones. Conclusion This research identified the intertemporal differentiation and nonlinear coupling laws governing vegetation dynamics in Shanxi Province, a temperate transition zone on the Loess Plateau. Differentiated ecological governance strategies targeting climate adaptation, topographic zoning, and anthropogenic-pressure regulation are proposed, which provide observational scientific support for the construction of ecological security barriers on China’s Loess Plateau.
Institutions: Shanxi Datong University, Anhui University
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,801
OpenAlex ID: W7213469060