Work

Sustainability assessment of China's nitrogen-phosphorus cycling system under future carbon neutrality transition scenarios

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Achieving sustainable management of the nitrogen–phosphorus (N–P) cycling system is essential for advancing multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, yet its long-term sustainability under carbon neutrality transition pathways remains insufficiently understood. This study develops a multi-dimensional assessment framework integrating resource, environmental, trade, and network perspectives to evaluate the sustainability of China's N–P cycling system. Using a material flow analysis–based model combined with multi-indicator evaluation and scenario analysis, we examine historical evolution from 1980 to 2020 and project future trend under alternative socioeconomic and carbon neutrality transition scenarios, and quantifies potential improvements achievable through different management strategies. Results indicate that China's N–P cycling system has experienced a persistent decline in overall sustainability over the past four decades, by approximately 55%, driven primarily by intensifying resource inputs, environmental pressures, and increasing trade dependence, although recent policy interventions have partially reversed this trend, drove a recovery of the index to 1.66 by 2020. Scenario projections further show that a clean energy transition without coordinated resource management may intensify pressure on phosphorus resources and weaken system sustainability. In contrast, integrated management strategies across production, consumption, and trade sectors can significantly enhance N and P sustainability, achieving 5.8-fold and 2-fold improvements over the BAU scenario. Consequently, strengthening the implementation of relevant measures to balance food security, resource efficiency, and clean energy transitions is imperative to ensure the sustainable development of the cycling system.

Source: Journal of Cleaner Production

DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.149508

Authors: Xin Wang, Zimeng Luo, Yadong Yu, Shanying Hu

Institutions: Tsinghua University, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, East China University of Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis

Subfield: Environmental Engineering

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Responsible consumption and production, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,660