Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: . Ocean-driven melting at the base of the floating ice shelves of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important driver of current and future ice losses. Ocean models that resolve sub-shelf melt rates at sufficient resolution are too expensive to run in large ensembles or for multi-centennial projections. Instead, ice-sheet models use simple modules to infer sub-shelf melt rates based on far-field ocean properties. However, there is no consensus on the optimal set of parameters for these modules. Here, we present a protocol for ice-ocean interactions in ISMIP7 Antarctic Ice Sheet projections. We describe (1)~how CMIP model datasets are processed to be used in melt modules, (2)~how parameters in melt modules can be selected to be physically constrained by oceanographic knowledge, (3)~the rationales for a range of datasets that span possible evolution of the Southern Ocean between 1950 and 2025, (4)~design for a melt Module Intercomparison Project (meltMIP) that will allow us to better assess uncertainty in sea level projections related to melt modules. Finally, we summarise lessons from ISMIP7 and potential research directions towards the next generation of ice-ocean interaction modelling.
Institutions: Northumbria University, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Argonne National Laboratory, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Dartmouth College, Hokkaido University, Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, British Antarctic Survey, Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, University at Buffalo, State University of New York
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Awards: Rethinking Antarctic Sea Level Projections (RASP), Polar Ice sheets, TRansformative Advances in Climate modelling for Climate Services - Projet Ciblé 7 - IMproving the physical PRocESS representatION in Earth System Models, Interacting ice Sheet and Ocean Tipping - Indicators, Processes, Impacts and Challenges (ISOTIPIC), G9000366875
OpenAlex ID: W7213981647