How Backcountry Users Engage With Avalanche Forecasts: Evidence From an Item Response Modelling Approach
Year: 2026
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: This study examined patterns of avalanche forecast information use among recreationallevel avalanche course completers using data from the Use of Avalanche Center Forecasts (UACF) survey.Responses from 879 recreational-level avalanche course completers were analyzed with a unidimensional partial credit model (PCM) to develop a Use of Avalanche Forecast Information in Decision Making (UAFIDM) progress variable through an empirically driven, bottom-up approach.This variable represents four qualitatively distinct zones of use of avalanche forecast information among recreational users.Findings reveal four qualitatively distinct zones of forecast use, with most recreational users consistently engaging with summary-zone products while substantially fewer incorporate distributed, effortintensive, and interpretive information sources.This pattern suggests that many recreational users may be making decisions based primarily on simplified summaries, without integrating the underlying data necessary for terrain selection and risk management.The results have direct implications for avalanche education and forecasting practice.Educational programs may need to more explicitly scaffold the transition from recognizing forecast elements to synthesizing information from multiple sources for decisionmaking.For forecasting operations, understanding which forecast elements are most frequently used by different user groups can help forecasters better align communication with user behavior.Identifying where engagement drops off may highlight opportunities to adjust how information is presented, emphasized, or integrated within the forecast to better support a range of users.
DOI: 10.15788/1790098914
Authors: Jerred Jolin, Kelly McNeil
Institution: Eastern Oregon University
Language: English
Subfield: Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W7214006210