A perspective from the future: How scenarios can inform blockchain investment and implementation decisions
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Conflicting predictions about the prospects of blockchain adoption make it difficult for strategists to decide whether to invest in blockchain applications and undertake the associated business process innovations. This challenge is intensified by a temporal dilemma: while such decisions are made with a long-term horizon in mind, the available information largely reflects present-day conditions and assumptions. To address this problem, this paper introduces the concept of aligning the timeframe of decision-making with the timeframe from which strategic information is derived through the use of far-future scenarios. The paper contributes to blockchain decision-making research by introducing a scenario-based perspective (from the future) that complements the dominant reliance on forecasting approaches and predictive models (on the future). Empirically, we analyse scenarios of far-future life-worlds with blockchain applications developed by 83 young future strategists. The analysis identifies ten ideal types of future life-worlds and demonstrates how far-future scenarios can support present-day decision-making regarding blockchain investment and implementation. The findings reveal four ways in which far-future scenarios contribute to strategic decision-making: (1) by identifying critical conditions for blockchain adoption, (2) broadening perspectives and revealing blind spots, (3) supporting backcasting from desirable futures, and (4) generating novel ideas for innovation. Thereby, the paper contributes to the strategic decision-making and foresight literature by demonstrating how far-future scenarios can bridge the temporal gap between present-day decision-making and future-oriented information, enabling decision-makers to adopt a broader perspective that encompasses the full spectrum of opportunities and threats emerging across alternative futures.
Source: Sustainable Futures
Authors: Patricia Wolf, Szabolcs Dezso Fabian
Institution: University of Southern Denmark
Language: English
Subfield: Information Systems
Field: Computer Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,340
OpenAlex ID: W7214033226