MGRD: Compact morphology-gated residual diffusion for variance-aware cross-domain neurite forecasting
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Tracking neurite morphology over time helps characterize structural changes during neuronal development and deterioration, but long-term time-lapse imaging is resource-intensive and difficult to scale. Forecasting future morphology could reduce this burden. Existing neurite digital-twin models such as gated spatiotemporal attention (gSTA) produce a single deterministic forecast without representing variability among plausible futures. We introduce Morphology-Gated Residual Diffusion (MGRD), a compact stochastic surrogate that jointly forecasts twenty future neurite-morphology frames from ten observed frames while conditioning on morphology features derived from the latest observation. On controlled phase-field trajectories, MGRD reduces trajectory-wise mean MAE by 9.7% relative to a matched control while updating 4.46 times fewer parameters. On human iPSC-derived neuron microscopy, MGRD improves all four reported metrics over gSTA, including a 39.6% reduction in trajectory-wise mean MAE and a 45.3% increase in skeleton F1. Without mouse-domain retraining or fine-tuning, MGRD also improves MAE and skeleton F1 on mouse cortical-neurosphere microscopy across 10-40-min sampling intervals and forecast horizons beyond 13 hours. Repeated sampling provides a case-level variance score for ranking forecast difficulty. Retaining approximately 60% of the lowest-variance cases reduces mean MAE by 17.6% on iPSC microscopy and 16.8% on simulation data. MGRD uses 1.01% of gSTA's parameters, requires less than one tenth of its training-update time, and generates a 50-step DDIM trajectory 7.9% faster when morphology features are cached. These results establish MGRD as a compact stochastic surrogate for neurite-morphology forecasting and case prioritization across simulation and microscopy datasets.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Institution: Carnegie Mellon University
Language: English
Subfield: Biophysics
Domain: Life Sciences
Open Access status: green
Awards: Track 4: Advanced CI Coordination Ecosystem: Monitoring and Measurement Services, Data-Driven Morphological Growth and Material Transport Regulation for Biological Neural Circuits Design and Prediction, G3562386289, Track 1: ACCESS Resource Allocations Marketplace and Platform Services (RAMPS), G4010157413, ACO: An Open CI Ecosystem to Advance Scientific Discovery (OpenCI), Track 3: COre National Ecosystem for CyberinfrasTructure (CONECT), G5367127336, G5464919783, LEAP-HI: Tackling Brain Diseases with Mechanics: A Data-Driven Approach to Merge Advanced Neuroimaging and Multi-Physics Modeling
OpenAlex ID: W7214042623