The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Emerging infectious diseases are a hallmark of the Anthropocene 1,2 . Human-driven ecosystem changes and human–wildlife–livestock contact can drive the emergence of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases 3–5 , but how much these processes shape landscapes of outbreak risk is poorly understood, beyond a few well-studied systems 6–8 . Here we consolidate 58,319 outbreak event records for 32 diseases and systematically test how 16 hypothesized social and environmental drivers impact outbreak geographies, while accounting for detection and reporting biases. We show that outbreak risks are typically highest in mosaic landscapes where people and livestock live alongside forests and fragmented ecosystems. These combined factors, along with long-term declines in precipitation, share strong impacts across several vector-borne diseases (for example, dengue, Lyme disease and zoonotic arboviruses). By contrast, directly transmitted zoonoses (for example, Ebola and mpox) share few common drivers, and the impacts of most other anthropogenic pressures (for example, deforestation, climate warming and agricultural intensification) vary widely between diseases. Most consistently, the observed geography of outbreaks is shaped by healthcare access: reporting declines by a median of 32% (range across diseases: 1.2–96.7%) for each additional hour’s travel time from a health facility. Our findings underscore that infectious disease spillover and emergence are multi-causal, and that no one-size-fits-all strategy can prevent epidemics and pandemics. Ecosystem-based public health interventions 9 should always follow system-specific evidence, and be paired with greater investment in health systems and One Health pathogen surveillance.
Source: Nature
Authors: Rory Gibb, Sadie J. Ryan, David M. Pigott, Maria del Pilar Fernandez, Renata L. Muylaert, Gregory F. Albery, Daniel J. Becker, Jason K. Blackburn, Hernan Caceres-Escobar, Michael Celone, Evan A. Eskew, Hannah K. Frank, Barbara A. Han, Erin N. Hulland, Kate E. Jones, Rebecca Katz, Adam Kucharski, Direk Limmathurotsakul, Catherine A. Lippi, Joshua Longbottom, Juan Fernando Martinez, Jane P. Messina, Elaine O. Nsoesie, David W. Redding, Daniel Romero-Alvarez, Boris V. Schmid, Stephanie N. Seifert, Anabel Sinchi, Christopher H. Trisos, Michelle Wille, Colin J. Carlson
Institutions: University College London, University of Florida, University of KwaZulu-Natal, University of Washington, Washington State University, The University of Sydney, Trinity College Dublin, University of Oklahoma, University of the Americas, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Idaho, Tulane University, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Georgetown University, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, University of Oxford, Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Columbia University, Boston University, Natural History Museum, Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad, Universidad Internacional SEK, Wageningen University & Research, Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud, University of Cape Town, The University of Melbourne, Peter Doherty Institute, Yale University
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $12,690
OpenAlex ID: W7214065796